Island warming up as X Factor politics heats up UK Election

At last a rather prolonged winter with even chillier than usual nights leading to a hunt for blankets ......has given way to the warm zephyrs and clear skies that herald the coming of summer. The high season which is coming to an end saw an increase in visitors despite the current fiscal malaise, but now the schooners and catamarans that recently laced the Sound we live on are leaving for their northern summers.

So while its warming here ........political humbug in the UK is alive and well and heating up as X factor politics make for a Well Hung parliament!

Sadly, whilst every body is entitled to their own opinion and vote (in a democracy), most UK voters perspective of politics is clouded by: a poor understanding of both (especially political) history and economics (thanks to a wanting academic curriculum): virtually no understanding of governance (domestic or foreign) due to an inherent disdain for civil servants:a fiscally driven media more interested in sensation and gloss than substance: and the remnants of a class system that still fuels conservative - in historical terms - divisions

Any apolitical analysis since the World War two.....suggests that the most important ingredient for change (which is by no means a new mantra) is strong leadership and governance, regardless of ideology. Real advances for both Social Welfare (the NHS) and the free market have been made by strong administrations from both sides of the spectrum........ and of late there has been more and more consensus as both parties lurch toward the centre. Tony Blair called it the third way and David Cameron would, without the recent economic slump, have been the natural successor to Blair. Now he faces a third problem X factor politics

Nick Clegg for all his populist new found appeal (worrying how ill informed the British public were of current Liberal politics and their personalities) is a lightweight, and without the strap line that the Liberals are the natural party of the centre and youth on his side .......would be floundering like his predecessors. A far more telling version of the strengths and weaknesses of Clegg could be seen when he was interviewed by Paxman, especially when compared to Cameron........

This UK election should basically be about the direction to take following the failure for the US to remember that Adam Smith never ruled out interventionist politics.. for ironically for the first time in years there is a political choice for immediate very specific change .........between on the one hand perceived fiscal stability (Labour - strong Keynesian) as stimulus appears to be slowly working and on the other an attempt (Conservative - not eliminating Keynes by any means) to 'change gear' by revitalising the private sector and begin dealing with a 'tax timebomb' that many apparently don't or don't want to see. Against that a hung parliament (given the real choice that exists) will be an anticlimax bringing, as it well in pragmatic terms, business as usual.

However a scenario that might well transpire is a Hung Parliament leading to Brown Clegg pact.........and my guessing is for all rhetoric ...economics will be entrusted in Labour ranks as well as anything of real substance. Cameron will meanwhile benefit as there is a gradual dawning on the voters that nothing has changed.........hence another election will be called early (say after two to three years if not before) as so called "winters of discontent" mount. At that point the Liberals will benefit from cross floor activity from the "Social Democrats" Labourites .....Blair would have been one. At the forthcoming election Labour is extinguished to third party status held for the last 75 years odd by the Liberals.......but a Conservative administration will get in......there will however now be a strong Liberal party as a working concern .......it might even benefit by a move from some ambitious Tory politicians into the Liberal camp .....Cameron however having nailed his flag to the mast, will be compelled to take the Tories into more extreme pasture ........and the Liberals will win the next election with a landslide victory to form their first administration for many a year in 2017.

This I suggest is a far more pragmatic answer to those Brits who are seeking a realistic change to the political canvas and business as usual..... a Liberal party blatantly Centre ....with importantly strong Leadership (Clegg could possibly hold on as a figurehead but very questionable given the likes of Milliband being in his ranks ......forget Cable and the others they are with one or two exceptions deadweight) and Governance.

All this of course presumes that the Liberals are not dumb enough to introduce PR just when their glory days are re-achievable!!